Hi,

Have you ever heard of or read anything by Nostradamus? He was a famous philosopher in the 1500’s. He made many predictions that some people say have come true with surprising regularity. He even has some followers today, who believe in him almost like a religious following, saying that his predictions are still true today. For example, some people say that he predicted 9/11, even way back when!

Well, the other day there was a program on the History Channel about Nostradamus and his

predictions for 2012. He predicts “In the sky will be seen a great fire dragging a trail of sparks.”

This was a remarkable prediction for back in the 1500’s, and nobody knew what Nostradamus

could be talking about; however, in our time, people believe he is talking about a comet that

will come and destroy the earth in December of 2012. Now, whether that is true or not is what this program was all about. It was very interesting.

But what does it have to do with bipolar disorder? Well, I look at it this way. I’m not saying that we can predict the future. But I am saying that we can predict future behavior based on past and present behaviors. What I’m talking about are behavior patterns, behavior characteristics that you can expect from someone who has bipolar disorder.

I talked to a friend about this. This friend studied psychology in college. And she said that in psychology, you study behavior – specifically, behavioral patterns. The theory is that you can’t change a current behavior unless you understand what is behind the pattern of behavior. Makes sense, right? Well, let’s take it a step further. If you can know the pattern of behavior… Then you can predict that behavior in the future. That’s what my friend says that psychology

(specifically, behavior modification) is all about. You identify the specific behavior… Then you identify the pattern of behavior… (i.e., the triggers of that behavior) Then you can predict when that behavior is going to happen in the future… So you can stop it from happening, or maybe even change the behavior (if it is a negative behavior, you can change it into a positive

behavior).

Ok… So here’s how it could work in your case with a loved one who has bipolar disorder: In the past, your loved one has had bipolar episodes, right? One of the things I advocate is that after the episode, you should look back at the episode and evaluate and analyze it, so that in the future,

you can use it to prevent further episodes from happening. In other words, you can use past behavior to predict future behavior. You can analyze and predict behavioral patterns. Specifically, you can look for triggers. So, for example, in a bipolar manic episode, loss of sleep is a major trigger to an episode.

If you notice that your loved one is losing sleep, or staying up later and getting up earlier, for instance, you can use that behavior pattern to predict that they will go into a bipolar manic episode (if that behavior is not changed). Do you see how this can help?

Well, I have to go!

Your Friend,

Dave